Sign in
EC

EXELON CORP (EXC)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 operating EPS was $0.39, down year over year from $0.47 and down sequentially from $0.92 (Q1), as timing of ComEd distribution earnings, storm costs at PECO, and higher interest/credit loss expense at PHI offset rate increases; full-year adjusted EPS guidance of $2.64–$2.74 was reaffirmed .
  • Versus S&P Global consensus, Q2 EPS modestly beat ($0.39 vs $0.368*), while revenue was slightly below ($5.43B vs $5.45B*); EBITDA was below consensus (actual $1.70B vs $1.79B*)—mix and storms drove the variance and were highlighted by management as transitory headwinds* .
  • Management emphasized energy security policy momentum, large-load interconnection progress (17+ GW pipeline with another ~16 GW under study), and balanced financing (100% of 2025 equity needs priced; ~22% of 2026 pre-priced), supporting the 5–7% 2024–2028 EPS CAGR target .
  • Dividend of $0.40 per share was declared for payment on September 15, 2025, maintaining payout discipline (~60% of adjusted EPS) .
  • Near-term catalysts: Q4 plan refresh (transmission and large-load updates), MD PSC outcomes on multi‑year plan reconciliations, ComEd MRP reconciliation, and ongoing large-load tariff proceedings .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Sustained top‑quartile reliability across all utilities; CEO: “disciplined execution… operational excellence… balanced investment strategy” underpinning guidance reaffirmation .
  • Rate increases supported revenue: PECO electric/gas and BGE distribution rate updates drove improved operating earnings YoY; ComEd and PHI saw higher distribution/transmission revenue from updated recovery mechanisms .
  • Financing execution: ~80% of planned 2025 long-term debt completed; 100% of 2025 equity ($700M) and ~22% of 2026 pre-priced via ATM, reducing rate volatility and supporting balance sheet flexibility .

What Went Wrong

  • ComEd and PHI earnings pressure: timing of distribution earnings and lower transmission peak load at ComEd; lower MD MYP reconciliation impacts plus higher credit loss and interest at PHI .
  • Storm costs: PECO faced “one of the largest in recent history” with peak outages >325k customers in June, resulting in higher O&M and anticipated deferral petition to PA PUC for extraordinary costs .
  • Corporate headwinds: $50M Customer Relief Fund and higher interest expense at HoldCo weighed on Q2 EPS; management cited these as one‑time/managed impacts within the annual plan .

Financial Results

Headline Financials (oldest → newest)

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$5.47 $6.71 $5.43
GAAP EPS ($USD)$0.64 $0.90 $0.39
Adjusted Operating EPS ($USD)$0.64 $0.92 $0.39

Consensus vs Actuals (S&P Global; oldest → newest)

MetricQ4 2024 Estimate*Q4 2024 ActualQ1 2025 Estimate*Q1 2025 ActualQ2 2025 Estimate*Q2 2025 Actual
Primary EPS ($USD)0.5929*0.64 0.8606*0.92 0.3676*0.39
Revenue ($USD Billions)$5.44*$5.47 $6.45*$6.71 $5.45*$5.43
EBITDA ($USD Billions)$2.24*$1.83*$2.38*$2.28*$1.79*$1.70*

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Operating Revenues and Net Income

SegmentQ2 2024 Revenue ($MM)Q2 2025 Revenue ($MM)Q2 2024 Net Income ($MM)Q2 2025 Net Income ($MM)
ComEd$2,079 $1,836 $270 $228
PECO$891 $1,000 $90 $136
BGE$928 $1,029 $44 $55
PHI$1,471 $1,579 $158 $143
Exelon Total$5,361 $5,427 $448 $391

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted Operating EPS ($)FY 2025$2.64–$2.74 (initiated Feb 2025) $2.64–$2.74 reaffirmed Maintained
Operating EPS CAGR2024–20285–7% 5–7% reaffirmed; midpoint or better Maintained
Dividend per shareQ3 2025 (pay 9/15/25)$0.40 (ongoing quarterly) $0.40 declared Maintained
Equity financing plan2025~60% priced as of Q1 ($425M) 100% ($700M) priced; ~22% of 2026 pre‑priced Raised execution completeness

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ4 2024 MentionsQ1 2025 MentionsQ2 2025 MentionsTrend
Energy security and regulated generation optionsInitiated 2025 outlook; policy tailwinds MD battery/storage rules; IL omnibus draft; PA/NJ considering regulated generation Strong advocacy for regulated generation to add certainty/control; PJM auction savings (~$3B) context Intensifying focus on state-led solutions
Large‑load (data center/AI) pipelineCapex up 10%; rate base growth 7.4% 17+ GW pipeline; cluster studies in IL/MA 17+ GW pipeline; additional ~16 GW under study; IL tariff for ≥50 MW, cluster process Expanding pipeline and formalization cadence
Financing/creditStrong IG ratings; 200 bps flexibility targeted ~50% 2025 debt done; ~60% equity priced ~80% 2025 debt done; 100% 2025 equity and ~22% 2026 pre‑priced Execution advancing; risk mitigated
Rate case & MYP reconciliationsComEd MRP approved; PECO/PHI orders MYP reconciliations pending in MD; ComEd $268MM reconciliation underway MD reconciliations pending; ComEd staff testimony (net reconcil.) noted; outcomes in H2 Decisions pending; watch for Q4 refresh
Customer affordabilityEmphasis on payout and bill mitigation Relief programs; LIHEAP advocacy $50M Customer Relief Fund; bill impacts ($1.50 at BGE, $1.50–$4 systemwide) discussed Elevated cost mitigation actions

Management Commentary

  • CEO Calvin Butler: “We remain focused on delivering long‑term value through operational excellence, customer affordability solutions and a balanced investment strategy… as we reaffirm our financial guidance” .
  • CFO Jeanne Jones: “Q2 adjusted operating earnings of $0.39 per share, overcoming an active start to the summer storm season… we remain on track to deliver within our full‑year earnings guidance range” .
  • On energy security and generation: “States… can proactively bring control, certainty, and cost benefits by pursuing options outside of the capacity market, including regulated generation” .
  • On large‑load growth: pipeline “holding firm at more than 17 gigawatts,” with another “16 gigawatts… under study” and IL tariff proposals to efficiently connect ≥50 MW while protecting existing customers .

Q&A Highlights

  • Regulated generation posture: Management supports state‑partnered utility‑owned generation for certainty/control and customer benefits; timing clarity likely next year, contingent on MD procurement outcomes (3 GW dispatchable generation solicitation) .
  • Transmission opportunity: $10–$15B beyond the plan, with timing and inclusions expected at Q4 refresh; equity financing rule of thumb ~40% for incremental capex (for competitive opportunities only upon certainty) .
  • Large‑load process: Active cluster studies in IL and Mid‑Atlantic; announcements likely in Q3–Q4 as studies complete; IL tariff formalizes deposits, cluster studies, and TSAs for ≥50 MW .
  • Customer bill impact: BGE bill impact ~$1.50/month; broader increases $1.50–$4/month across jurisdictions tied to PJM capacity results; near‑term mitigation via EE/DR, with longer‑term generation solutions pursued .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025: EPS beat and revenue/EBITDA slight miss vs S&P Global consensus—EPS $0.39 vs $0.368*, revenue $5.43B vs $5.45B*, EBITDA $1.70B vs $1.79B*; management cited ComEd timing, PECO storms, and PHI interest/credit loss as drivers .
  • Sequentially, Q1 2025 exceeded consensus (EPS $0.92 vs $0.861*, revenue $6.71B vs $6.45B*)* .
  • FY 2025 consensus EPS ~$2.70* aligns with reaffirmed guidance midpoint ($2.69), suggesting limited estimate revision urgency absent regulatory outcomes and Q4 plan updates* .

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q2 quality of miss/beat: modest EPS beat with transitory headwinds (storms, timing) and continued rate‑driven revenue strength; full‑year guidance intact .
  • Execution on financing de‑risks plan: ~80% 2025 debt and 100% 2025 equity priced; ~22% of 2026 pre‑priced—supports funding of $38B capex and 7.4% rate base growth .
  • Policy backdrop improving: MD procurement and IL tariff proposals could unlock regulated generation and transmission opportunities—watch Q4 refresh for incorporation into the base plan .
  • Large‑load (AI/data centers) remains a multiyear growth vector: 17+ GW pipeline plus ~16 GW under study; tariff clarity may accelerate interconnections across IL/MA/DC .
  • Near‑term watch items: MD MYP reconciliation orders; ComEd $268MM reconciliation (staff initial views noted); PECO storm deferral petition outcome—each could influence H2 earnings trajectory .
  • Income profile and payout: dividend $0.40 per quarter maintained; payout discipline (~60% of adjusted EPS) consistent with low‑risk T&D strategy .
  • Trading lens: Q4 plan update and regulatory decisions are the likely catalysts; interim estimate changes should be modest barring outsized storm events or policy surprises .